失業率と失業保険申請件数の増加トレンドをまとめてみる

あのねあのね、零細企業の安サラリーマンずうううううっっっとやってるとね。

景気ってのは理屈じゃないの。貧乏会社がやっとこさ捻出した経費でね、小さなスペースでしょっっぼい求人広告出してみるとね、一発でわかるわけ。それはそれは立派な経歴の優秀なかたが沢山面接にきてくださるわけですよ

— ホビー門口 (@hobby_kadoguchi) July 13, 2022

Move higher in permanent job losses (blue), but largely sideways move for temporary layoffs (orange) pic.twitter.com/mQ3wnevlnG

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 2, 2022

Unemployment rate rose to 3.7% vs. 3.5% est. & 3.5% in prior month pic.twitter.com/1ZFryznTrb

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 2, 2022

民間の雇用状況は悪化してるで
今朝のADPのレポートでは新規雇用、予想30万のところ13万2千で、予想の半分以下だった。昨日の雇用募集数の増加発表より今朝の実際の雇用の方がずっと重要。FEDの利上げの影響 https://t.co/AbXIYNRvvG

— Badger (@AkaTheBadger) September 1, 2022

Initial jobless claims 232k vs. 248k est. & 237k in prior week (rev down from 243k); continuing claims 1.438M vs. 1.438M est. & 1.412M prior … greatest increases in NY (+4.8k), MA (+3.1k), & MI (+1.1k); greatest decreases in CT (-1.8k), MO (-1.4k), & OK (-1.3k) pic.twitter.com/HlthnrKhRr

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 1, 2022

新規失業保険申請件数には夏休みがある pic.twitter.com/SVvJE9xzSg

— Shen (@shenmacro) August 19, 2022

This time of year tends to have seasonal tailwinds for jobless claims. Looking ahead to next week, it has historically been one of the best of the year with NSA claims rising week over week only once in 2020: https://t.co/6x9wInFy7a pic.twitter.com/KT4GeUhqtz

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 11, 2022

Initial jobless claims at 250k vs. 264k est. & 252k in prior week; continuing claims at 1.437M vs. 1.45M est. & 1.43M in prior week … greatest increases in CA (+2.8k), NJ (+965), & TX (+723); greatest decreases in CT (-7.3k), MI (-1.1k), & OK (-921) pic.twitter.com/Qf9ZihH4CY

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 18, 2022

🇺🇸NY連銀製造業景気指数
-31.3 (consensus 5.0)

受注高-29.6↘️
出荷高-24.1↘️
受注残-12.7↘️
納期-0.9↘️
在庫6.4↘️

支払価格55.5↘️
受入価格32.7↗️
雇用者数7.4↘️
平均労働時間-13.1↘️

6か月先景況感 2.1

やっぱり、雇用悪化してる？ pic.twitter.com/oxCJCGkSeC

— りつ＠米国株投資 (@RitzCapital) August 15, 2022

米国の景況感系指標 pic.twitter.com/FeQRByp1sL

— Shen (@shenmacro) August 15, 2022

Unemployment rate in July moved down to 3.5% pic.twitter.com/dSfInRhKlm

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 5, 2022

Initial jobless claims +260k vs. +260k est. & +254k in prior week; continuing claims +1.416M vs. 1.383M est. & 1.368M in prior week … greatest increases in KY (+1.1k), VA (+283), & NM (+51); greatest decreases in MA (-7.5k), NY (-5.8k), & SC (-3.2k) pic.twitter.com/6HvDL2fARf

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 4, 2022

Second consecutive month of y/y increase in ⁦@ChallengerGray⁩ job cuts, +36.3% vs. +58.8% in prior month … auto sector has led this year with >25k cuts, 9.5k of which occurred in July; Tech sector is in 2nd place with YTD total of 9.3k pic.twitter.com/BJdze9GTf3

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 4, 2022

Total nonfarm job openings declined in June to 10.7 million, down from May’s upwardly revised 11.3 million. Hires fell to 6.4 million https://t.co/pmlm5thtQO pic.twitter.com/shh551mHEQ

— St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) August 3, 2022

Initial jobless claims ticked up 7k to 251k this week.

251k was 11k higher than estimates for 240k.

Claims have now risen 85k from a low of 166k back in mid-March.

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 21, 2022

Initial jobless claims at 244k vs. 235k est. & 235k in prior week; continuing claims at 1.331M vs. 1.380M est. & 1.372M in prior week … greatest increases in NY (+10.2k), KY (+3.1k), & IN (+2.4k); greatest decreases in NJ (-3.5k), CA (-3k), & GA (-2.1k) pic.twitter.com/4KeCSDsOHt

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 14, 2022

22 million US jobs were lost in March-April 2020.

21.5 million jobs have since been added back.

The greatest jobs comeback in history is nearly complete.

Charting via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/rxGrY1l3Ov

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 8, 2022

No change in unemployment rate … stays at 3.6% pic.twitter.com/vy6P1prfBD

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 8, 2022

Initial jobless claims up to 235k vs. 230k est. & 231k in prior week ; continuing jobless claims at 1.375M vs. 1.328M est. & 1.324M in prior week … greatest increases in NY (+5.3k), MI (+4.8k), & CA (+3.9k); greatest decreases in IL (-1.5k), KY (-1.2k), & OH (-1.1k) pic.twitter.com/PkXZQKUQm9

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 7, 2022

Similar thinking around jobless claims … focus is often on level, but reality is trend is much more important; right now, 4w average of initial jobless claims is up 36% from recent trough; average historical increase from trough to recession start is just 20% (4/5) pic.twitter.com/pAjkDXshaz

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 6, 2022

逆業績相場になるのは、仕方ないとして、問題はそのあとなんだ。
この失業率が5％とかで止まってしまって、上がってこないとFRBは金融緩和なんぞやらないので、株式市場の死が待ってるわけだ。1970年代のように。

だから、しばらく失業率見とくのがいいんだよ。 https://t.co/IIx6bY7VN4

— 順張りさん (@aisansansansan) July 5, 2022

Initial jobless claims at 231k vs. 229k est. & 233k in prior week; continuing claims at 1.328M vs. 1.318M est. & 1.331M in prior week … greatest increases in NJ (+5.5k), MA (+3.2k), & OH (+2.5k); greatest decreases in TX (-2.2k), GA (-1.8k), & PA (-1.7k) pic.twitter.com/yKEv0m5O8l

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 30, 2022

Initial jobless claims at 229k vs. 226k est. & 231k prior (rev up from 229k); continuing claims at 1.315M vs. 1.32M est. & 1.31M prior (rev down from 1.312M); greatest increases in MI (+1.9k), NJ (+889), & CT (+872); greatest decreases in IL (-2.6k), CA (-1.2k), & FL (-962) pic.twitter.com/Hj1C98HBoK

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 23, 2022

失業保険申請件数は増加トレンド明確化 https://t.co/FzybdtheUc

— 藤代宏一 (@KoichFuj) June 17, 2022

Worth noting that with Fed’s new estimate of unemployment rate at 4.1% by 2024, that would be an increase of 0.5% from current level … going back to 1948, average increase from UR’s pre-recession trough to when recession starts is 0.3% pic.twitter.com/36GCuNBTPg

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 15, 2022

コロナでアーリーリタイア決めた55歳以上の労働者が戻ってくればインフレは随分と緩和されるはず。 pic.twitter.com/3XGGqyb712

— 藤代宏一 (@KoichFuj) June 15, 2022

Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 27,000 in the week ended June 4, to 229,000. The four-week moving average rose to 215,000 https://t.co/Z9oeYw8wSU pic.twitter.com/1EXLtb0em0

— St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) June 11, 2022

Unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6% and continues to hover near record low relative to history pic.twitter.com/sRJjSerHdN

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 3, 2022

Small businesses crushed pic.twitter.com/IJoR04sQrZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 2, 2022

Initial jobless claims down to 200k vs. 210k est. & 211k in prior week; continuing claims at 1.309M vs. 1.340M est. & 1.343M in prior week … greatest increases in CA (+2.5k), MS (+1.8k), & NY (+1.0k); greatest decreases in KY (-3.5k), PA (-2.2k), & GA (-1.9k) pic.twitter.com/XYZX2Y1YcP

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 2, 2022

3月のアメリカの求人件数は過去最高を記録し､自発的離職者もデータが残っている2000年以降で過去最高を更新しました。失業者1人に対し求人件数が1.9件もあるため､人手不足は深刻。今後、賃金は急速に押し上げられるとみられています。
#会社四季報オンライン https://t.co/6PXxREhZ2E

— 会社四季報📚先取り配信中 (@shikihojp) May 3, 2022